Search results for "Expected value"
showing 10 items of 26 documents
Improving stock index forecasts by using a new weighted fuzzy-trend time series method
2017
Define a new technical indicator for measuring the trend of the fuzzy time series.Introduce a new weighted fuzzy-trend time series method to forecast stock indices.Compare ex-post performances of weighted FTS methods using stock market indices.Assess statistical significance of ex-post forecast accuracy for weighted FTS methods. We propose using new weighted operators in fuzzy time series to forecast the future performance of stock market indices. Based on the chronological sequence of weights associated with the original fuzzy logical relationships, we define both chronological-order and trend-order weights, and incorporate our proposals for the ex-post forecast into the classical modeling…
Cross-Layer MAC Protocol for Unbiased Average Consensus Under Random Interference
2019
Wireless Sensor Networks have been revealed as a powerful technology to solve many different problems through sensor nodes cooperation. One important cooperative process is the so-called average gossip algorithm, which constitutes a building block to perform many inference tasks in an efficient and distributed manner. From the theoretical designs proposed in most previous work, this algorithm requires instantaneous symmetric links in order to reach average consensus. However, in a realistic scenario wireless communications are subject to interferences and other environmental factors, which results in random instantaneous topologies that are, in general, asymmetric. Consequently, the estimat…
Statistical Properties of Generalized Strain Criterion for Multiaxial Random Fatigue
1989
ABSTRACT Statistical properties of generalized criterion of the maximum shear and normal strains on the fracture plane have been presented, Functions of probability distribution and spectral density of the equivalent strain have been analysed on the assumption that a random tensor of strain state is a six-dimensional stationary and ergodic Gaussian process. The expected value and variance of the equivalent strain have been determined as well. From spectral analysis a new limitation has been derived for extension of some multiaxial cyclic fatigue criteria to random loadings. It is connected with the fact that in some cases the frequency band of the equivalent strain is greater than that for …
Information potential for some probability density functions
2021
Abstract This paper is related to the information theoretic learning methodology, whose goal is to quantify global scalar descriptors (e.g., entropy) of a given probability density function (PDF). In this context, the core concept is the information potential (IP) S [ s ] ( x ) : = ∫ R p s ( t , x ) d t , s > 0 of a PDF p(t, x) depending on a parameter x; it is naturally related to the Renyi and Tsallis entropies. We present several such PDF, viewed also as kernels of integral operators, for which a precise relation exists between S[2](x) and the variance Var[p(t, x)]. For these PDF we determine explicitly the IP and the Shannon entropy. As an application to Information Theoretic Learning w…
Weibull Model for Dynamic Pricing in e-Business
2011
As is the case with traditional markets, the sellers on the Internet do not usually know the demand functions of their customers. However, in such a digital environment, a seller can experiment different prices in order to maximize his profits. In this paper, we develop a dynamic pricing model to solve the pricing problem of a Web-store, where seller sets a fixed price and buyer either accepts or doesn’t buy. Frequent price changes occur due to current market conditions. The model is based on the two-parameter Weibull distribution (indexed by scale and shape parameters), which is used as the underlying distribution of a random variable X representing the amount of revenue received in the sp…
The value of perfect and imperfect information in lake monitoring and management.
2020
Highlights • Knowledge on the value of monitoring can assist decision-making in lake management. • We calculate value of perfect information theoretically. • We estimate value of imperfect information with Monte Carlo type of approach. • Generally, monitoring is profitable to invest in if VOI exceeds the cost. • Additional monitoring is profitable even if the lake is in good condition a priori. Uncertainty in the information obtained through monitoring complicates decision making about aquatic ecosystems management actions. We suggest the value of information (VOI) to assess the profitability of paying for additional monitoring information, when taking into account the costs and benefits of…
Fractional quantum Hall effect in the interacting Hofstadter model via tensor networks
2017
We show via tensor network methods that the Harper-Hofstadter Hamiltonian for hard-core bosons on a square geometry supports a topological phase realizing the $\nu=1/2$ fractional quantum Hall effect on the lattice. We address the robustness of the ground state degeneracy and of the energy gap, measure the many-body Chern number, and characterize the system using Green functions, showing that they decay algebraically at the edges of open geometries, indicating the presence of gapless edge modes. Moreover, we estimate the topological entanglement entropy by taking a combination of lattice bipartitions that reproduces the topological structure of the original proposals by Kitaev and Preskill,…
The influence of the mean stress on fatigue life of 10HNAP steel under random loading
2001
Abstract This paper contains the results of uniaxial random load fatigue tests with different mean values performed on 10HNAP steel specimens. The experimental fatigue life was compared with the life determined according to different methods of amplitude transformation of the cycles. Cycles were counted with the rain flow algorithm and damage was cumulated with the Palmgren–Miner hypothesis. It has been shown that in the case of “symmetric” stress histories with zero expected values, the mean values of selected cycles do not strongly influence the calculated fatigue life and transformation of the cycle amplitudes; hence, no mean stress correction for cycle mean values different from zero is…
On the Non-uniform Redundancy of Representations for Grammatical Evolution: The Influence of Grammars
2018
The representation used in grammatical evolution (GE) is non-uniformly redundant as some phenotypes are represented by more genotypes than others. This article studies how the non-uniform redundancy of the GE representation depends on various types of grammars. When constructing the phenotype tree from a genotype, the used grammar determines Bavg, the average branching factor. Bavg measures the expected number of non-terminals chosen when mapping one genotype codon to a phenotype tree node. First, the paper illustrates that the GE representation induces a bias towards small trees. This bias gets stronger with lower Bavg. For example, when using a grammar with Bavg = 0.5, 75% of all genotype…
Kernel estimation and display of a five-dimensional conditional intensity function
2018
The aim of this paper is to find a convenient and effective method of displaying some second order properties in a neighbourhood of a selected point of the process. The used techniques are based on very general high-dimensional nonparametric smoothing developed to define a more gen- eral version of the conditional intensity function introduced in earlier earthquake studies by Vere-Jones (1978). 1976) is commonly used for such a purpose in discussing the cumulative behavior of interpoint distances about an initial point. It is defined as the expected number of events falling within a given distance of the initial event, divided by the overall density (rate in 2-dimensions) of the process, sa…